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5% depreciation of GEL forecasted in 2022

5% depreciation of GEL forecasted in 2022
5% depreciation of GEL forecasted in 2022

The national currency may depreciate next year, which can be caused by several reasons, including pandemic prolongation, regional instability, and the devaluation of the lira. According to Report.ge, this is mentioned in the updated macro-sectoral review of TBC Capital.

According to the document, in a one-year period, the change in the exchange rate against the dollar maybe 5%, and the dollar fee will be around GEL 3.25.

The value of one euro may reach the mark of GEL 3.68; however, there are other factors that have the opposite effect on the strengthening of the GEL, such as the recovery of tourism, as well as strong foreign exchange inflows from increased exports and remittances.

The factors of GEL depreciation:

  • Prolongation of the pandemic
  • Geopolitical instability in the region
  • Weak Euro and Turkish Lira
  • Possible deflation in 2022 in Georgia
  • Fed tightening faster than expected and strengthening the US dollar.
  • GEL strengthening factors:
  • Restoration of tourism
  • Strong inflows
  • Budget high foreign funding
  • Increased conversions from currency to GEL
  • Historically high GEL / USD differential
  • Activation of foreign currency loans
  • Excess liquidity in the currency of the banking sector
  • Weakening of the US dollar
  • The tendency of long-term strengthening of the real effective GEL exchange rate.
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