A sharp recovery in the tourist flow is projected starting the second quarter of 2021, and a resumption of pre-crisis indicators - from 2022, the review by TBC Capital reports.
Under the document, the initiative "Work Remotely from Georgia" (the Georgian government's program, offering foreign citizens to work remotely from Georgia) may be a mitigating factor in a worsening scenario.
According to TBC Capital, the number of infections is on the rise in Georgia and several countries, although the vaccine is to be available in the coming months. At the same time, the mortality rate decreases as treatment methods improve.
As the organization's experts say, under the baseline scenario, tourism revenues are to decline by 83% year by year.
It means virtually zero revenues from international tourism in the remaining months of 2020.
A gradual recovery is projected in 2021, although tourism revenues are supposed to decline by about 50% compared to 2019.
Experts say that the widespread use of an effective vaccine, which is supposed to be available in the first half of 2021, will lead to a gradual recovery in international travel.
Simultaneously, improved consumer sentiment and pent-up demand for recreation will contribute to a relatively rapid recovery in tourism.
"Business travel will resume relatively late because regular videoconferencing effectively replaces face-to-face meetings, and companies are cutting travel costs," the TBC Capital report reads.
Bela Gelashvili
News Author